{"generated_at":"2026-09-28T11:51:43Z","as_of":"2026-09-27","today":"2026-09-28","era":"runner","stale_days":1,"eras":{"cutoff":"2026-08-25","note":"Every window is restricted to the era of the latest scored day (its 'era' field); the July Mac era and the runner era are different models and are never pooled.","runner":"Hetzner runner cycle since 2026-08-25 (3-day windows, snapshot engine)","mac_july":"July 2026 Mac era (old engine, 4-day windows) \u2014 a different model; never pooled with the runner era"},"systems":{"mac_july||":{"region_days":81,"regions":["isone","nyiso","frcc","spp","ercot","pjm","serc","miso","wecc"],"first":"2026-07-03","last":"2026-07-20"},"runner|hifld-isone:7069ab57d900|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-isone:ead1c6b0702b|pjm-ties-345+bundle-demand-weights-2026-09-11":{"region_days":2,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-11","last":"2026-09-12"},"runner|hifld-isone:f6f4dbd01ac9|homing-isone+avail-isone":{"region_days":5,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-19"},"runner|hifld-isone:f6f4dbd01ac9|homing-isone+avail-isone+gapfill+ordc-prod":{"region_days":9,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-19","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-isone:f6f4dbd01ac9|homing-isone+avail-isone+gapfill+ordc-prod+horizon96":{"region_days":1,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-isone:f6f4dbd01ac9|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["isone"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner||":{"region_days":70,"regions":["isone","nyiso","frcc","spp","ercot","pjm","serc","miso","wecc"],"first":"2026-09-04","last":"2026-09-11"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:1e73b4a25c71|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:1e73b4a25c71|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:1e73b4a25c71|yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod":{"region_days":2,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-22","last":"2026-09-23"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:6dc173a1a6da|yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso":{"region_days":6,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-20"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:6dc173a1a6da|yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill":{"region_days":2,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-20","last":"2026-09-21"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:6dc173a1a6da|yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod":{"region_days":7,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-21","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:6dc173a1a6da|yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod+horizon96":{"region_days":1,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-nyiso:95307f79ccae|pjm-ties-345+bundle-demand-weights-2026-09-11":{"region_days":2,"regions":["nyiso"],"first":"2026-09-11","last":"2026-09-12"},"runner|hifld-frcc:04924af94a85|cf-frame+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso":{"region_days":2,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-22","last":"2026-09-23"},"runner|hifld-frcc:11f555fbd1e9|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner|hifld-frcc:11f555fbd1e9|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-frcc:e8e31eb3e995|pjm-ties-345+bundle-demand-weights-2026-09-11":{"region_days":2,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-11","last":"2026-09-12"},"runner|hifld-frcc:f7c4e469746c|cf-frame+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso":{"region_days":13,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-frcc:f7c4e469746c|cf-frame+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+horizon96":{"region_days":1,"regions":["frcc"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-spp:2a2f1048dd3e|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-spp:3080f1f59310|pockets-spp-ercot+seam-spp-v2c-gv2+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso":{"region_days":5,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-19"},"runner|hifld-spp:3080f1f59310|pockets-spp-ercot+seam-spp-v2c-gv2+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod":{"region_days":9,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-19","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-spp:3080f1f59310|pockets-spp-ercot+seam-spp-v2c-gv2+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod+horizon96":{"region_days":1,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-spp:70ec5a6178b4|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner|hifld-spp:859873bc3f15|pockets-spp-ercot+seam-spp-v2c-gv2+yards-spp-frcc-serc-nyiso+gapfill+ordc-prod":{"region_days":2,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-22","last":"2026-09-23"},"runner|hifld-spp:ab5ae4b53faa|pjm-ties-345+bundle-demand-weights-2026-09-11":{"region_days":2,"regions":["spp"],"first":"2026-09-11","last":"2026-09-12"},"runner|hifld-ercot:03909913ef9f|pockets-spp-ercot":{"region_days":4,"regions":["ercot"],"fir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"miso"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-miso:c60276d2ea1a|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["miso"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner|hifld-miso:c60276d2ea1a|tiesplit-miso+offer-miso-ta45":{"region_days":4,"regions":["miso"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-18"},"runner|hifld-miso:c60276d2ea1a|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["miso"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-miso:e2e8f8d4471b|tiesplit-miso+offer-miso-ta45+dell":{"region_days":2,"regions":["miso"],"first":"2026-09-18","last":"2026-09-19"},"runner|hifld-miso:e2e8f8d4471b|tiesplit-miso+offer-miso-ta45+dell+gapfill+demand930+mom-level":{"region_days":4,"regions":["miso"],"first":"2026-09-19","last":"2026-09-22"},"runner|hifld-wecc:3de69bf5a409|wecc-combined+cf-frame":{"region_days":6,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-22","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-wecc:3de69bf5a409|wecc-combined+cf-frame+horizon96":{"region_days":1,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-27","last":"2026-09-27"},"runner|hifld-wecc:d36e7efa7c7d|pockets-spp-ercot+wecc-combined+cf-frame+tiesplit-miso+homing-isone+avail-isone+pjm-isolf-2026-09-13":{"region_days":2,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-14","last":"2026-09-15"},"runner|hifld-wecc:d36e7efa7c7d|topology-vote-zones+window-extra-9h+fd3-fd4-inputs-2026-09-11":{"region_days":3,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-12","last":"2026-09-14"},"runner|hifld-wecc:d36e7efa7c7d|wecc-combined+cf-frame":{"region_days":8,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-15","last":"2026-09-22"},"runner|hifld-wecc:dfe1d40308f0|pjm-ties-345+bundle-demand-weights-2026-09-11":{"region_days":2,"regions":["wecc"],"first":"2026-09-11","last":"2026-09-12"}},"systems_note":"system = '<era>|<topology_revision>|<inputs_rev>': the engine era, the bundle's atlas_topology_revision (manifest.toml; sha1 of lines.parquet) and the cycle's day-layer definition label (<run>/atlas_inputs.json, hand-bumped in run_conus_rolling.sh INPUTS_REV). Every window is restricted to the system of the latest scored day of its view (per region and lead) and states it. ONLY a lines-file change or an INPUTS_REV bump restarts a window: a bundle re-export with unchanged lines (bundle_rev), an engine snapshot refresh (engine_rev) or a day-layer builder edit (etl_digest) without a bump does NOT \u2014 such a change inside one system is listed per view as provenance_drift. Days before the stamp carry '' for the missing parts and form their own system per era; topology_revision joins the key only on stamped days, so the pre-stamp history is one system. systems / regions.<r>.systems carry n_days + first + last per system. PER REGION (D-SC2, 2026-09-17): on a scoped label (`<token>@<regions>`, `@all` = every region) the inputs part is the region's own slice \u2014 the names of the tokens in its scope, 'base' when none \u2014 so a bump for one region restarts that region's windows alone; a legacy (unscoped) label keys whole.","leads":{"day_ahead":"the run made the day BEFORE (solved ~11:00-12:30 UTC of D-1); whether it landed before the market's day-ahead gate for D is measured per day (before_close) against the UTC solve stamp \u2014 never assumed. What a subscriber would bid with","same_day":"the run made on the scored day itself (~11:00-12:30 UTC of D, a nowcast; the cycle's gated run)"},"bases":{"da":"the market's published day-ahead hub/zone price","rt":"the market's real-time price (hourly, or hourly means of 5-minute intervals)"},"da_close":{"pjm":"10:30 EPT (14:30 UTC EDT)","miso":"10:30 EST (15:30 UTC, no DST)","spp":"09:30 CPT (14:30 UTC CDT)","ercot":"10:00 CPT (15:00 UTC CDT)","wecc":"10:00 PPT (17:00 UTC PDT) \u2014 CAISO","isone":"10:00 EPT (14:00 UTC EDT)","nyiso":"05:00 EPT (09:00 UTC EDT) \u2014 BEFORE the 09:30 UTC cycle: the day_ahead lead is published after NYISO's close","serc":"no organised market","frcc":"no organised market"},"da_gate":{"pjm":{"tz":"America/New_York","local":"10:30"},"isone":{"tz":"America/New_York","local":"10:00"},"nyiso":{"tz":"America/New_York","local":"05:00"},"miso":{"tz":"Etc/GMT+5","local":"10:30"},"spp":{"tz":"America/Chicago","local":"09:30"},"ercot":{"tz":"America/Chicago","local":"10:00"},"wecc":{"tz":"America/Los_Angeles","local":"10:00"}},"basis":{"comparison":"Each scored day is yesterday's forecast day, scored the next morning against what actually happened; rescore re-validates the last days once late real-time feeds have posted.","prices":"Load-weighted model LMPs aggregated to each market's published hub / zone prices. Model period p of window day w = the UTC hour beginning D 00:00Z + (p - 24w - 2) h (FIX 1A convention).","metrics":"mae/rmse/bias in $/MWh over the hours of the LOCAL market day the validator scored \u2014 coverage = hours/24 is stated on every row (hours the run does not contain are hours_truncated); smape in %; corr = Pearson; peak_hit = same peak hour; spread_ratio = std(model)/std(observed); range_ratio = p95-p5 ratio; spike hit-rate = observed hours above mean+1.5 sigma also flagged by the model's own mean+sigma rule. Region values are equal-weight means over its price series (mae_median_series = the median series), windows are equal-weight means over days.","negative":"n_neg = observed hours with price < 0 on the scored pair (the load-weighted hub proxy of the TOTAL bus LMP, artefacts kept, vs the market's price \u2014 never the energy component); neg_hit_rate = share of those hours where the model is also < 0 (null when a day had none); neg_mae = MAE over those hours; neg_false_rate = share of the scored hours where the model is < 0 but the market was not. n_neg sums over series and days; the rates / MAE are equal-weight means over the series and days that define them (B3 2026-09-12).","skill":"skill_p1d = 1 - MAE(model)/MAE(persistence) on the hours where both exist: the baseline is the same series' price at the same hour of the latest same-basis market day fully known when the run solved \u2014 yesterday (D-1) for the day-ahead basis on both leads (D-1's DA price clears on D-2 afternoon) and for the real-time basis at the same_day lead; D-2 (48 h back) for the real-time basis at the day_ahead lead, whose run solved ~11Z of D-1 before most of D-1's real-time prices existed. Pooled over series-days as 1 - sum(mae_on_p1d*n_p1d)/sum(mae_p1d*n_p1d) \u2014 the model MAE on exactly the baseline's hours; negative = the baseline beats the model.","coverage":"coverage = hours scored / hours of the local market day (hours_in_run = hours the run held, hours_truncated = market-day hours the run did not contain, e.g. the evening of the last window day). Days scored before the 2026-09-11 market-day validator carry pre_contract true and no coverage: their hours were a UTC-day clip that mixed two market days.","before_close":"day_ahead rows: the UTC solve stamp (run_at_utc, the manifest mtime) was before the market's DA gate for the scored day (da_gate, at D-1 local). before_close_share = share of window days that were. run_at (legacy) is the solver box's local clock.","artefacts":"n_artefact_bus_h = bus-hours in the aggregation at the $250 relief price, below the floor, above the ISO cap or at the engine's floor-slack flag \u2014 solver constructs, not forecasts; counted, not removed.","ex_artefact":"mae_ex_art = DIAGNOSTIC ONLY (founder ruling D5(a), 2026-09-11): the MAE of the same hub/zone aggregate re-weighted WITHOUT the solver-artefact bus-hours (relief-priced, sub-floor, above-cap, floor-slack), over the n_ex_art hours that kept at least one bus; hour-pooled over series and days. The headline, the map layer, nodes.json and every gate keep the artefacts.","artefact_census":"artefact_cells_pub / shed_mwh (round 9b, 2026-09-13): the runner's census of the production run itself (etl/artefact_census.py) \u2014 lmp cells >= 5999 ($6,000 = the engine's value of lost load, i.e. unserved energy priced into the LMP) inside the PUBLISHED window (periods 30..81) and the engine's adequacy_shed.parquet total (MWh/yr as written). Per run; over a window the cells (bus-hours) sum across days and shed_mwh is the WORST run's annualised figure (max \u2014 an annual expectation does not add across days); n_artefact_days = days whose run carried either. The cycle's STATUS line carries the same finding as the AMBER class artefact[<r>] (CONUS_ARTEFACT_GATE). Absent on days censused before it shipped.","genshare":"Generation fuel shares (percentage points) vs EIA-930 net generation by fuel for the region's balancing authorities.","served_label":"served_ties_persistence / served_label ('~ yesterday's price') on a window: the served file's pooled MAE on the persistence hours is within 0.25 $/MWh of persistence's (served_vs_p1d), or \u2014 windows of <= 7 days \u2014 the LATEST served source is the anchor (never any anchor day in the window: n_days_anchor is a count). A day whose served file had no rows for a lead is recorded as served raw on that lead (ml = raw, served_source none). Such a window carries no skill claim \u2014 the skill bar (beat persistence out of sample on >= 14 days, p < 0.05) is unchanged (FD1, 2026-09-11). regions.<r>.anchor_scope is the selector's scope test RECOMPUTED from the store as of the latest scored day with yesterday's served choice as the incumbent and the run's solver basis (recomputed_from_store true): what would otherwise be served, its gap to persistence pooled and per lead, the anchor's shadow count per lead vs anchor_min_days, and whether the anchor is admitted.","congestion_realism":"since 2026-09-11 the ISO-NE/NYISO transmission yardstick is the ISO's published congestion component (loss-dominated markets: 64 %/54 % of the observed zone spread variance is marginal losses); hub_disp_ratio is shown relabelled with the MCC-based ratio beside it; the marginal-loss term is a shadow record only","gates":"OK/BREACH is the daily calibration gate on the same-day run: a major-fuel share off > 5 pts, or (D3(b), 2026-09-11) the median-hub day-ahead MAE over the full local day above the p90 of the region's own trailing 30 scored days in the run's system, turns the cycle AMBER; until 14 such days exist the LMP half is CALIBRATING and reads as OK here (report-only). The $8 any-hub figure is a report line only. 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